Figure 3.4: Future return periods (years) of current climate 1-in-20 year PED events, for four scenarios: CSIRO 2080s 25% and 75% scaling (upper panels) and Hadley 2080s 25% and 75% scaling (lower panels)
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The figure shows four maps of how the frequency of what is currently a 1-in-20 year drought may change by the 2080s, for two different climate models (CSIRO, top, and Hadley, bottom), and for two different greenhouse gas emission scalings (25%, left, and 75%, right). The smallest changes are seen under the CSIRO model and 25% emission scaling, and the biggest changes under the Hadley model and 75% emission scaling.
The top left map uses the CSIRO model and 25% emission scaling. It indicates that what is currently a 1-in-20 year drought could become a 1-in-5 to 1-in-10 year drought in Central Otago, Canterbury and southern Marlborough, Wairarapa and Hawke's Bay, coastal Bay of Plenty and eastern Northland.
The top right map uses the CSIRO model and 75% emission scaling. It indicates that what is currently a 1-in-20 year drought could become a 1-in-5 to 1-in-10 year drought in all of Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Nelson, Wairarapa, Manawatu, Hawke's Bay, Bay of Plenty and Northland. In south Canterbury and parts of Central Otago, the current 1-in-20 year drought could occur every 3 to 5 years. Other parts of the country would see a lesser or no change in drought risk.
The bottom left map uses the Hadley model and 25% emission scaling. It indicates that what is currently a 1-in-20 year drought could become a 1-in-5 to 1-in-10 year drought in all of Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Nelson, Wairarapa, Manawatu, Hawke's Bay, Bay of Plenty and Northland. In south and north Canterbury and Marlborough, and most of Hawke's Bay, the current 1-in-20 year drought could occur every 3 to 5 years. Other parts of the country would see a lesser or no change in drought risk.
The bottom right map uses the Hadley model and 75% emission scaling. It indicates that what is currently a 1-in-20 year drought could occur every 2 to 5 years Canterbury, Marlborough, and most of the eastern parts of the North Island including Coromandel Peninsula and eastern Northland. In Nelson, Otago, Manawatu and western Northland, the current 1-in-20 year drought could become a 1-in-5 to 1-in-10 year drought. Other parts of the country would see a lesser or no change in drought risk.
