Figure 3.3 Scenario variation of annual PED at the Lincoln and Napier gridpoints
Return to the point in the document where this figure is located.
Results are shown for the current climate ("Now"), the 2030s, and the 2080s, for four scenarios.
Text description of figure
The figure shows four line graphs of the change in PED for the typical 1-in-20 year drought various climate change scenarios, and the change in probability that PED in any given year exceeds 600mm, between now and the 2080s for the sites of Lincoln (left panel) and Napier (right panel).
At Lincoln, the PED of the typical 1-in-20 year drought is projected to rise from currently 770mm to between 830 and 960mm in the 2080s. The probability that PED will exceed 600mm in any given year is projected to increase from currently 23% to between 37 and 55% in the 2080s. The smallest increase is projected under the CSIRO climate model and 25% greenhouse gas emission scaling, while the highest increase is projected under the Hadley model and 75% greenhouse gas emission scaling.
At Napier, the PED of the typical 1-in-20 year drought is projected to rise from currently 750mm to between 820 and 990mm in the 2080s. The probability that PED will exceed 600mm in any given year is projected to increase from currently 18% to between 30 and 68% in the 2080s. The smallest increase is projected under the CSIRO climate model and 25% greenhouse gas emission scaling, while the highest increase is projected under the Hadley model and 75% greenhouse gas emission scaling.
