Figure 3.1 Average change in annual accumulated PED (in mm) between the current climatology and projected climatology for the 2080s according to the CSIRO (left) and Hadley (right) models, scaled to the IPCC 75% global warming
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The contour intervals, every 30mm, correspond approximately to one week of pasture evapotranspiration deficit in summer.
Text description of figure
The figure shows two maps of the expected average change in annual PED in the 2080s, for the CSIRO model and 75% greenhouse gas emissions scaling (left), and the Hadley model and 75% greenhouse gas emissions scaling (right).
For the CSIRO model, average PED increases by about 90 to 150mm for Central Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Wairarapa, Hawke's Bay and the East Cape, while most other areas experience an increase of only 50mm or less.
For the Hadley model, average PED increases by about 150 to 180mm in Canterbury, Marlborough, and the North Island's east coast from Wairarapa to the East Cape, between 90 and 150 in Central Otago, coastal Bay of Plenty and eastern Northland, and less than about 50mm in most other parts of the country.
