Figure 2.3 Probability that in any one year the annual accumulated PED will exceed 200 mm (left) and 600 mm (right)
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The inverse of the probability gives the return period of the specified deficit. For example, a probability of 0.05 corresponds to a return period of 20 years.
Text description of figure
The figure shows two maps of the probability of PED exceeding 200mm (left map) and 600mm (right map), based on data from 1972 to 2003.
The probability that annual PED exceeds 200mm is between 0.5 and 1 (i.e. most years) for Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Wairarapa, Hawke's Bay, coastal Manawatu, and parts of Northland. The probability is between 0.1 and 0.5 for Southland, Nelson, and most other parts of the North Island. The South Island west coast and the Central Plateau have a probability of less than 0.01 to exceed 200mm PED.
The probability that PED exceeds 600mm is between 0.1 and 0.5 for Central Otago, coastal Canterbury, Marlborough, and coastal Hawke's Bay, and is 0.01 or less in most other parts of the country.
