Figure 1.1 Climate change scenarios for the 2080s, with 75% IPCC scaling, for summer precipitation (%) and summer total potential evapotranspiration (mm), from downscaling the CSIRO and Hadley model output

Text description of figure

The figure shows four maps of New Zealand indicating the likely change in summer precipitation in percent and summer potential evapotranspiration in mm, by the 2080s, for the CSIRO and Hadley models.

For the CSIRO model, precipitation increases by about 0-5% for the southern half of the South Island, decreased by 5-0% for the northern half of the South Island and most of the North Island except for the east coast from Wairarapa to the East Cape, and decreases by 10-5% for the east coast from Wairarapa to the East Cape. Potential evapotranspiration increases by about 40mm for Central Otago, most of the eastern South Island from south Canterbury northwards including Nelson, and the North Island east coast including inland Hawke's Bay. In other areas, potential evapotranspiration changes by between 5 and 25mm.

For the Hadley model, precipitation decreases by 20% for the east cost area from south Canterbury up to the East Cape, and by 5-10% for Central Otago and coastal Bay of Plenty. In other regions, precipitation changes between -5 and +5%, with the exception of the South Island west coast and Southland where precipitation increases by 5-15%. Potential evapotranspiration follows a similar geographical pattern, with biggest increases of about 40mm along the east coast, and between 5 and 25mm in other areas.