Skip to main content.

Table 4.6: Example of simplified 'risk register'

Return to the point in the document where this table is located.

Locality: Windy Cove
Step 1 Identification of the issue: Application for the re-development of properties at Nos. 5 & 6 Shore Road.
Step 2.1 Extent of built environment
  • Existing residential housing built in late 1960s. 35 properties and public car park located along Shore Road generally located 25 m from present vegetation line.
  • Access road to other properties, and network utilities located landward of properties.
  • Property values currently $250k-$300k.
  • No other re-development has yet occurred.
  • Re-development likely to result in permanent (100 year) high value ($500k +) properties. Further re-development of other properties likely.
  • Limited scope for development further landward on plots due to location of access road.
Step 2.2 Coastal morphology & processes
  • Sandy beach.
  • Frontal dunes flattened during initial development of property in 1960s.
  • No known studies of beach processes other than analysis of 10 years of beach profiles indicates long term erosion of around 0.4 m per year and beach levels can drop by up to 1m resulting in a steep scarp along vegetation edge.
  • Immediate hinterland levels are around 6.5 m MSL dropping to 5.5 m MSL along the access road.
  • Minor overtopping of beach resulted in gardens damaged and water ponding on road at least twice over the last ten years. No inundation of housing noted and disruption and damage costs minimal.
  • No tsunami events known to have impacted on frontage.
Step 2.3 Identify hazards and scenarios
  1. Coastal erosion leading to loss of gardens over next 100 years.
  2. Coastal erosion leading to damage or loss of some property over next 100 years.
  3. Coastal erosion leading to loss of all property and infrastructure over next 100 years.
  4. Coastal inundation leading to property flooded above floor level.
Step 2.4 Identify drivers and effects of climate change Sea level: 0.5 m rise in mean and extreme sea level by 2100. Storm magnitude - assume slight increase. Wave climate - no change accounted for in present analysis. Sediment supply - assume no change.
Analysis and evaluation of risks
Hazard Scenario With no allowance for climate change With climate change
Likelihood Step 3.1 Consequence Step 3.2 Risk Step 3.3 Likelihood Step 3.1 Consequence Step 3.2 Risk Step 3.3
1 Likely Minor High Frequent / certain Minor High
2 Possible Moderate High Likely Moderate High
3 Unlikely Major High Possible Major Extreme
4 Possible Moderate High Likely Moderate High
Uncertainties Level
Future coastal erosion rate due to lack of knowledge of existing beach processes and sediment supply + uncertainty over future climate change impacts on beach response notable wave climate changes. High
Methods to reduce uncertainty
Uncertainty could be reduced by regional study of beach processes coupled with scenario testing of future wave climate changes. Unlikely to be justifiable given scale of present decision but possible for long term land-use planning for Windy Cove. Peer review of present risk assessment by coastal hazard experts.
Return to the point in the document where this table is located.