Figure A2.8: Example probability-of-exceedance curves for High Water (HW) based on 100-years of tidal predictions at Queens Wharf (Wellington), illustrating the effect of sea-level rise on the increased frequency of the present-day maximum high water level being exceeded (in this case 0.9 m above datum).

Text description of figure

This figure is based on the Queens Wharf, Wellington, high water exceedance plot presented earlier (Figure A2.3).

The line showing exceedances for high water, assuming no sea-level rise effects (as in Figure A2.3) is reproduced. Above and running parallel to this are too lines representing projected sea-level rises of 0.2 metres by 2050 and 0.5 metres by 2100. The present maximum possible high water level of 0.9 metres above mean sea level datum would be exceeded by just 0.002% of high waters, whereas a small 0.2 metre rise in sea level would cause this present maximum to be exceeded by 22% of all high waters. With a projected 0.5 metre rise in sea level the present maximum would be exceeded by 99.9% of all high tides.