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4 Responding to Climate Change: Future-proofing Decision-making

4.1 Introduction

Effectively managing the effects of coastal hazards and the progressive changes to the occurrence and magnitude of such hazards associated with climate change is fundamental to maintaining or developing sustainable and resilient coastal communities.

Climate change impacts are occurring now. Future changes are inevitable, irrespective of mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, climate change considerations alone are unlikely to stimulate or engender local government action. Rather, through a risk management approach (chapter 5), an assessment and prioritisation of possible responses to coastal hazard and climate change effects can provide the impetus to change policy, planning and resource consenting outcomes and to develop a proactive approach to adapting to climate change (Figure 4.1).

The emphasis in this Guidance Manual is on understanding the scope and variation of climate change, and using risk assessment as a method to determine adaptation responses appropriate to the risks. Climate change will impinge on a wide range of local government functions. The most effective approach to incorporate climate change impacts into decision-making is to include it alongside the range of coastal hazard and other factors that local government already takes into account as part of its planning and consenting functions. That way, climate change can be assimilated across the wide range of local government functions rather than applied as a separate exercise.

This chapter outlines general adaptation principles that will help ensure that climate change considerations are taken into account appropriately (Box 4.1). It also sets out some key concepts relating to local government’s roles and responsibilities that are aligned to incorporating adaptation principles into local government functions.

Box 4.1: Key terminology
Adaptation to climate change	Undertaking actions to minimise threats or to maximise opportunities resulting from climate change and its effects. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished: anticipatory – adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed; autonomous – adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climate stimuli but is triggered by other factors such as ecological change in natural systems or market changes in human systems; planned – adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to or maintain a required state.
Adaptive capacity	The ability of a human system or an ecosystem to: adjust or respond to climate change (to both variability and extremes); moderate potential damages; take advantage of new opportunities arising from climate change; or cope with and absorb the consequences.
Low-regrets adaptations	Low-cost policies, decisions and measures that have potentially large benefits
No-regrets adaptation	Adaptations that generate net social, economic and environmental benefits irrespective of anthropogenic climate change, or adaptations that at least have no net adverse effects.

Figure 4.1: Conceptual representation of the drivers of change in coastal margins and the implications for coastal hazard risk and vulnerability of coastal communities: when no adaptation occurs, and when adaptation is implemented in the near term and mid term

Conceptual representation of the drivers of change in coastal margins and the implications for coastal hazard risk
Text description of figure 4.2: A diagram of the drivers of change in coastal margins and the future impacts these have on coastal communities.

Drivers of change in coastal margins can be split into two categories – global change drivers and local change drivers. Global change drivers include global temperature, mean sea level and economic activity. Local change drivers include coastal development, resource demand and ecological footprint.

The future impacts on bio-geophysical conditions and the socio-economic well-being of coastal margins and communities are shown in two figures, one without adaptation and one with adaptation. Without adaptation there is an increasing trend of increasing coastal hazard risk and community vulnerability from the year 2000 to the year 2100. With adaptation increasing coastal hazard risk and community vulnerability is reduced. Two examples are shown (one with adaptation implemented and becoming effective from 2010 to 2015, the other adaptation implemented and becoming effective from 2025 to 2030) to demonstrate that the earlier adaptation activities commence the more effective they should be at slowing or reducing increasing coastal hazard risk and community vulnerability.

Source: Adapted from Box 16.4 in IPCC 2007d and from
Harvey et al 2004.

4.2 Adaptation principles

Planned adaptation is part of a balanced and prudent response to climate change. Adaptation has been, and continues to be, an integral part of how natural and human systems have developed and evolved in response to climate and its variability. Fundamentally, it is about proactively enhancing our capacity to adapt to the future effects of climate change (ie, building adaptive capacity) through minimising, adjusting to or taking advantage of the consequences of climate change.⁵¹

A number of common themes and characteristics have led to good adaptation. Many of these principles are consistent with good participatory decision-making and hence apply more widely than to just climate change considerations (see next section). Principles include:⁵²

work in partnership with coastal communities
understand existing risks and vulnerabilities to coastal hazards and climate change and their critical thresholds
identify the most adverse coastal hazards and compounding climate change risks and focus on actions to manage the most vulnerable areas
seek opportunities to incorporate adaptation into all new and existing developments within the coastal margin
incorporate flexibility (ie, adaptive management) to deal with changing risks and uncertainties. Recognise the value of a phased approach to adaptation (Figure 4.2)
recognise the value of no-regrets, low-regrets and win–win adaptation options to managing climate change risks:
- no-regrets: policies and decisions that will pay off immediately under current climate conditions
- low-regrets: low-cost policies, decisions and measures that have potentially large benefits
- win–wins: policies, decisions and measures that help manage several coastal hazard or climate related risks at once, or bring other environmental and social benefits, eg, preservation of natural character.
adopt a sequential and risk-based approach to decision-making regarding coastal development
avoid actions that will make it more difficult to cope with coastal hazard and climate risks in the future
review the effectiveness of adaptation measures and planning processes through continual monitoring and evaluation.

4.3 Key principles for local government

Figure 4.2: Different approaches to adaptation and their effect on the level of risk over time

Text description of figure 4.2: This figure shows four different approaches to adaptation implementation and their effect on the level of risk over time.

A precautionary approach (less frequent intervention). The level of risk decreases sharply at the time of a significant intervention and then increases over time towards the acceptable level of risk.
Risk or intervention not sensitive to climate change. The level of risk remains at a constant below the acceptable level of risk.
A managed/adaptive approach (risk tracking or multiple interventions). The level of risk follows a pattern of increasing until it reaches the acceptable level of risk where there is a decision point, at which a modest intervention decreases the level of risk which then begins to increase again until the next decision point.
No adaptation. The level of risk increases over time.

Source: Adapted from Donovan et al 2007.

Local government actions are undertaken in the context of a range of principles that are set out in law, or have evolved through good practice and case law.⁵³ All of these are integral to successful adaptation, and must be kept in mind when dealing with climate change effects.

4.3.1 Sustainability

The concepts of sustainable development under the Local Government Act 2002, and sustainable management of an area’s natural and physical resources under the Resource Management Act (RMA) 1991, imply the ongoing ability of communities and people to respond and adapt to change in a way that avoids or limits adverse consequences. Since 2004, the purposes and principles set out in Part 2 of the RMA include a requirement that people making decisions in terms of the Act must give particular regard to the effects of climate change.

Over the past decade or more, during which time people have become more aware of climate change and its causes and effects, the causes of climate change have begun to be tackled at an international level. At the same time, local communities have been encouraged to adopt no- or low-regrets responses to adapt to climate change. Such responses fit within the concept of sustainability. They involve applying adaptive responses (and sometimes limitation responses) that will not be regretted irrespective of the eventual nature and magnitude of climate change effects. Examples are: a range of energy efficiency and conservation practices; forest planting; and avoidance of new development in areas already or potentially hazard-prone.

More recent is an understanding of the variability of climate change effects, and of the possible implications of decisions made in a framework of uncertainty. This has required a shift such that local authorities undertake risk-based assessments of climate change effects and their responses before they make decisions in the interests of long-term sustainability.

4.3.2 The reasonably foreseeable needs of future generations

The phrase ‘reasonably foreseeable needs of future generations’ means taking into account the interests of future communities, and the direct and indirect costs that future generations may bear as a result of decisions made in the present. The concept is found in key sections of the Local Government Act and the RMA, and is the fundamental basis for international, national, regional and local responses to climate change.

Even where the need for a response to climate change is not yet apparent, this principle applies. It integrates the concepts of research and of forecasting of trends and potential biophysical impacts with the present expectations of future community needs. This principle requires responsible action in the context of balancing the needs of the present with those of the future.

4.3.3 Avoid, remedy and mitigate adverse effects

This duty from the RMA, to ‘avoid, remedy and mitigate adverse effects’ applies to the preparation of plans by local authorities under that Act, to every decision made under that Act, and to everyone who carries out an activity or development under that Act. ‘Effect’ is defined to include temporary or permanent effects, present and future effects, cumulative effects over time, and potential impacts of high probability, or of low probability with high potential effects. Therefore, through reasonable understanding and analysis of future environmental change, climate change impacts can and should be taken into account when contemplating new activities and developments.

Questions of scale and type of change, and implications of specific decisions, can best be worked out through a risk assessment process that takes into consideration the realistic permanency of the decision and the anticipated future impacts. The process may result in decisions to avoid future effects (such as ‘no go’ areas for development), or at least to mitigate them by specific design responses (such as minimum floor levels). If a future remedy is to be an option (such as relocatable buildings in coastal locations), the implications for present and future owners and the community need to be clearly identified at the time of consent; and conveyed into the future by long-standing mechanisms (such as consent notices on titles).

4.3.4 Precautionary principle and the cautious approach

This concept of ‘precautionary principle’ is implied in the RMA (and stated in the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement prepared under that Act) and is directly stated in the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002. It requires an informed but cautious approach to decisions where full information on effects is not available, particularly when there is high level of uncertainty and where decisions are effectively irreversible.

A precautionary approach is also particularly relevant where effects are of low probability but high potential impact, such as the effects of infrequent but high flood levels in developed flood plain areas. Section 32 of the Resource Management Act requires an analysis of a plan provision to consider the risks of ‘acting or not acting’ if there is uncertain or inadequate of information.

This principle is directly relevant to addressing climate change effects in plans.

4.3.5 The ethic of stewardship / prudent stewardship / kaitiakitanga

The Local Government Act and the RMA both contain the concepts of stewardship / kaitiakitanga. In the Local Government Act, prudent stewardship is to be applied to the efficient and effective use of a community’s resources in the interests of the district and region. In the RMA, the ethic is applied to the wider environment.

The concepts underpin sound planning decision-making in the interests of the community, to avoid or minimise loss of value or quality over time. Its relevance to climate change is to asset management, landcare and watercare, biosecurity and biodiversity, but also to natural character, amenity and public access values.

4.3.6 Consultation and participation

Principles of consultation with communities and affected people lie at the heart of local government decision-making. Consultation implies informed input into decision-making processes. For decisions with outcomes likely to be influenced by climate change, those being consulted must have sufficient information to understand the likely scenarios and associated risks for their communities. Ensuring that adequate information is available within a community for consultation to be effective is a responsibility for regional and local government. It involves the translation of international and national knowledge and projections to local levels, with indications of degree of certainty and uncertainty.

Consultation and participation can also raise awareness of risk and appropriate responses – for example, tsunami risk and how people should respond when it happens in their locality.

4.3.7 Financial responsibility

Local government is expected to act within normal codes of financial responsibility on behalf of the community. In terms of local government activities, particularly asset provision and management, the Local Government Act sets out requirements that the reasons for any changes to current provisions, and their cost, be identified in detail. For infrastructure enhancements due to future effects of climate change, both an evaluation of risks and the costs of different levels of service need to be expressed in a transparent way.

4.3.8 Liability

Local government can be financially liable for the consequences of decisions that are shown to have been in breach of statutory or common law duties. This is a difficult area of law, and councils use a range of techniques to reduce their risk of liability. For example, where decisions regarding single properties are involved, instruments such as covenants or consent notices attached to titles may be used to identify risks. Care should be taken when using such devices as they may not limit the owner’s (or future owner’s) expectations of further capitalisation, and do not appear to have any effect on land values.

Broader climate-related issues, such as frequency of inundation of a developed area, may be less likely to result in direct liability unless the area becomes uninhabitable as a result. However, community costs in enhancing or retrofitting infrastructure can become considerable, and questions of equity in relation to wider community interests also arise.

51 UKCIP 2005.

52 Adapted from UKCIP 2005; Shaw et al 2007.

53 Adapted from MfE 2008a.

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