Table 2.3: Projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature (in °C) from 1990 to 2090, by regional council area
The average change, and the lower and upper limits (in brackets), over the six illustrative scenarios are given.
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| Summer | Autumn | Winter | Spring | Annual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northland |
2.3 [ 0.8, 6.6] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 6.0] |
2.0 [ 0.5, 5.5] |
1.9 [ 0.4, 5.5] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.9] |
Auckland |
2.3 [ 0.8, 6.5] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.9] |
2.0 [ 0.5, 5.5] |
1.9 [ 0.4, 5.4] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.8] |
Waikato |
2.3 [ 0.9, 6.3] |
2.2 [ 0.6, 5.6] |
2.1 [ 0.5, 5.2] |
1.8 [ 0.3, 5.1] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.6] |
Bay of Plenty |
2.2 [ 0.8, 6.2] |
2.2 [ 0.6, 5.6] |
2.0 [ 0.5, 5.2] |
1.8 [ 0.3, 5.1] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.5] |
Taranaki |
2.3 [ 0.9, 6.1] |
2.2 [ 0.6, 5.3] |
2.1 [ 0.5, 5.1] |
1.8 [ 0.3, 4.9] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.3] |
Manawatu-Wanganui |
2.3 [ 0.9, 6.0] |
2.2 [ 0.6, 5.3] |
2.1 [ 0.5, 5.0] |
1.8 [ 0.3, 4.9] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.3] |
Hawke’s Bay |
2.1 [ 0.8, 6.0] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.3] |
2.1 [ 0.5, 5.1] |
1.9 [ 0.3, 5.1] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.4] |
Gisborne |
2.2 [ 0.8, 6.2] |
2.2 [ 0.6, 5.6] |
2.0 [ 0.5, 5.2] |
1.9 [ 0.3, 5.2] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.5] |
Wellington |
2.2 [ 0.9, 5.7] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.1] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.0] |
1.8 [ 0.3, 4.8] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.2] |
Tasman-Nelson |
2.2 [ 0.9, 5.6] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.1] |
2.0 [ 0.5, 4.9] |
1.7 [ 0.3, 4.6] |
2.0 [ 0.6, 5.0] |
Marlborough |
2.1 [ 0.9, 5.6] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.0] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 5.0] |
1.8 [ 0.3, 4.8] |
2.0 [ 0.6, 5.1] |
West Coast |
2.2 [ 0.9, 5.3] |
2.1 [ 0.7, 5.0] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 4.9] |
1.7 [ 0.4, 4.5] |
2.0 [ 0.7, 4.9] |
Canterbury |
2.1 [ 0.8, 5.2] |
2.1 [ 0.7, 4.9] |
2.2 [ 0.8, 5.1] |
1.8 [ 0.4, 4.7] |
2.0 [ 0.7, 5.0] |
Otago |
2.0 [ 0.7, 4.8] |
2.0 [ 0.8, 4.6] |
2.2 [ 0.8, 4.8] |
1.7 [ 0.5, 4.3] |
2.0 [ 0.8, 4.6] |
Southland |
2.0 [ 0.7, 4.7] |
2.0 [ 0.8, 4.6] |
2.1 [ 0.8, 4.7] |
1.6 [ 0.5, 4.1] |
1.9 [ 0.8, 4.5] |
Chatham Islands |
1.9 [ 0.8, 4.6] |
2.1 [ 0.6, 4.9] |
2.0 [ 0.3, 4.5] |
1.8 [ 0.3, 4.6] |
2.0 [ 0.5, 4.7] |
Note 1: This table covers the period from 1990 (1980–1999) to 2090 (2080–2099), based on downscaled temperature changes for 12 global climate models, re-scaled to match the IPCC global warming range for six illustrative emission scenarios. Corresponding maps (Figures 2.3, 2.5) should be used to identify sub-regional spatial gradients.
Note 2: If the seasonal ranges are averaged, the resulting range is larger than the range shown in the annual column, because of cancellation effects when summing over the year.
Note 3: Projected changes for the 15 regional council regions were the result of the statistical downscaling over mainland New Zealand. For the Chatham Islands, the scenario changes come from direct interpolation of the General Circulation Model grid-point changes to the latitude and longitude associated with the Chathams.
