Figure Box 2.1: Effect of climate change on average and extreme temperatures
The horizontal axis represents temperature (Source: figure 4.1–IPCC Synthesis Report, IPCC 2001b). Note that the horizontal axis is not to scale, and the diagram is illustrative only.
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Text description of figure
The figure illustrates how two aspects of climate - average and extreme temperatures - are closely connected. The horizontal axis is temperature, and the vertical axis is probability of occurrence.
In this simplified example, normally distributed frequency distribution curves of temperatures for present and future climates display the extremes in the distributions by shading areas as representing portions of the curves that are below freezing and above 30 degrees Celsius.
For a 3 degree Celsius shift in the average temperature, a future climate could expect a total cessation of frosts, and an increased frequency of high and very high temperatures than previously experienced under the current climate.
