Figure 2.7: Projected changes in seasonal mean rainfall (in %), for 2090 relative to 1990: average over 12 climate models for A1B emission scenario

Text description of figure

This figure shows four seasonal maps of projected changes in seasonal mean rainfall (in percentage) over New Zealand for 2090 relative to 1990 (twelve model average) for the A1B scenario.

For summer, the map shows increases in seasonal mean rainfall of up 10 percent in Hawkes Bay and parts of the East Cape. Smaller increases of up to 7.5 percent are projected in most parts of Marlborough and Canterbury, the Wairarapa and southern Bay of Plenty. Decreases of up to -5 percent are shown in the east of the North Island and Kapiti region, the northern West Coast and parts of Southland. Smaller decreases over Stewart Island, the Waikato Region and south Westland are projected.

For autumn, increases of up to 7.5 percent in seasonal mean rainfall are projected for Marlborough, Canterbury, Otago, Westland, Western Bay of Plenty, and from East Cape down through Hawkes Bay and the Wairarapa. Decreases of up to -5 percent are shown for Northland, Waikato, Wanganui,  most of the central North Island and the region around the northern end of the Southern Alps.

For winter, marked increases in seasonal mean rainfall are projected, particularly in the west, with the West Coast of the South Island, Southland, parts of Taranaki, Manawatu and the Waikato increasing by over 10 percent. Decreases in the east of up to -7.5 percent in Northland and from East Cape down through Hawkes Bay and the Wairarapa are expected, as well as down the east coast of the South Island as far as Canterbury. Smaller decreases in the Bay of Plenty and parts of the Waikato are shown.

For spring, marked increases in seasonal mean rainfall of over 10 percent are projected for the West Coast of the South Island and Southland. Smaller increases of up to 5 percent are expected for Otago, the north-west of the South Island and most of Taranaki and the Manawatu. Marked decreases of more than -7.5 percent are shown in Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, East Cape, Hawkes Bay and parts of the Wairarapa. Smaller decreases in the central North Island and Marlborough/Canterbury regions are expected.