Figure 2.5: Projected changes in seasonal mean temperature (in °C), for 2090 relative to 1990: average over 12 climate models for A1B emission scenario

Text description of figure

This figure shows four seasonal maps of projected changes in seasonal mean temperature (in degrees Celsius) over New Zealand for 2090 relative to 1990 (twelve model average) for the A1B scenario.

For summer, Stewart Island shows a 1.8-1.9 degree increase in seasonal mean temperature, increasing to up to 2.4 degrees in the north-west of the South Island. In the North Island, an increase of up to 2.2 degrees along the east coast from the Wairarapa to East Cape is shown, with over 2.3 degrees west of the ranges and over 2.4 degrees in Waikato-King Country.

For autumn, the map shows an increase in seasonal mean temperature of up to 2 degrees in Stewart Island, with greater increases of up to 2.3 degrees as we head towards north-west of the South Island. Increases of 2.1 to 2.3 degrees are expected over the North Island.

For winter, seasonal mean temperature is expected to increase by 1.8 to 2.3 degrees over much of the country with the maximum changes, of over 2.4 degrees, in the Southern Alps.

For spring, seasonal mean temperature is expected to increase in the North Island, north of the South Island and Canterbury by 1.8 to 2.0 degrees. In the  rest of the South Island increases of up to 1.8 degrees are projected, with up to 1.7 degrees expected for South-Westland.