Figure 2.4: Projected changes in seasonal mean temperature (in °C), for 2040 relative to 1990: average over 12 climate models for A1B emission scenario

Text description of figure

This figure shows four seasonal maps of projected changes in mean temperature (in degrees Celsius) over New Zealand for 2040 relative to 1990 (twelve model average) for the A1B scenario.

For summer, Stewart Island and Southland show an increase in seasonal mean temperature of up to 0.85 degrees, with greater increases of up to 1.1 degrees projected for the north-west of the South Island.  Much of the North Island is also expected to show increases of up to 1.1 degrees.  Increases over 1.1 degrees are expected for Waikato and northern Taranaki.

For autumn, a similar distribution of temperature increases to summer is shown but with a lower maximum of around 1.05 degrees.

For winter, increases in seasonal mean temperature of 0.8 to 1.0 degrees are expected over much of the country with the maximum changes, of over 1.1 degrees, in the Southern Alps.

For spring, seasonal mean temperature is projected to increase in the North Island, north of the South Island and Canterbury by 0.75 to 0.85 degrees. The rest of South Island is expected to increase by up to 0.75 degrees.