Table 3: Summary of key results for New Zealand at 2010 under Scenarios 1 to 8
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Scenarios |
1 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
7a |
8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emissions results (Mt of CO2e) |
||||||||
Reference case emissions |
77.9 |
83.1 |
83.1 |
88.2 |
88.2 |
83.1 |
83.1 |
83.1 |
Sink credits |
18.2 |
14.2 |
14.2 |
8.4 |
8.4 |
14.2 |
14.2 |
14.2 |
Emissions target |
60.9 |
60.9 |
60.9 |
60.9 |
60.9 |
60.9 |
60.9 |
60.9 |
Required abatement |
-1.1 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
|
4.8 |
5.1 |
8.0 |
5.5 |
18.9 |
2.6 |
6.4 |
8.0 |
|
-5.9 |
2.7 |
0.0 |
12.9 |
0.0 |
5.2 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
Macroeconomic variables (per cent difference relative to the reference case at 2010 - unless otherwise stated) |
||||||||
GDP |
-0.02 |
-0.02 |
-0.05 |
-0.03 |
-0.24 |
-0.04 |
-0.04 |
-0.19 |
GNP |
0.05 |
-0.03 |
-0.04 |
-0.11 |
-0.25 |
-0.09 |
-0.07 |
-0.16 |
Exports |
-0.52 |
-0.40 |
-0.78 |
-0.24 |
-2.20 |
0.05 |
-0.54 |
-0.26 |
Imports |
-0.34 |
-0.39 |
-0.71 |
-0.45 |
-2.15 |
-0.12 |
-0.60 |
-0.37 |
Emissions reduction |
-6.1 |
-6.2 |
-9.7 |
-6.2 |
-21.5 |
-3.1 |
-7.7 |
-9.7 |
Carbon tax ($NZ / t of CO2e) |
10.4 |
10.4 |
17.8 |
10.4 |
51.1 |
13.0 |
13.0 |
67.1 |
Quota income ($NZ million) |
61.0 |
-27.9 |
0.0 |
-134.5 |
0.0 |
-68.2 |
-18.1 |
0.0 |
Output (per cent difference relative to the reference case at 2010) |
||||||||
Dairy products |
-2.6 |
-2.5 |
-4.3 |
-2.3 |
-13.4 |
0.0 |
-2.9 |
-0.8 |
Meat products |
-1.1 |
-1.1 |
-2.4 |
-0.9 |
-9.0 |
0.2 |
-2.0 |
0.7 |
Cattle |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
-2.9 |
-1.4 |
-9.1 |
0.2 |
-2.3 |
0.6 |
Raw milk |
-2.2 |
-2.1 |
-3.7 |
-1.9 |
-11.5 |
0.0 |
-2.6 |
-0.4 |
Wool |
-6.4 |
-6.6 |
-12.6 |
-6.6 |
-30.0 |
0.2 |
-11.5 |
0.9 |
Electricity |
-0.7 |
-0.6 |
-0.9 |
-0.5 |
-1.8 |
-0.9 |
-0.6 |
-2.9 |
Iron and steel |
-2.9 |
-2.7 |
-4.5 |
-2.5 |
-10.0 |
-4.4 |
-2.9 |
-18.4 |
Primary aluminium |
-3.6 |
-3.5 |
-6.2 |
-3.6 |
-17.5 |
-4.3 |
-4.3 |
-21.9 |
Light manufacturing |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
2.4 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
Services |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
Exports (per cent difference relative to the reference case at 2010) |
||||||||
Dairy products |
-3.1 |
-2.9 |
-5.1 |
-2.7 |
-15.7 |
0.0 |
-3.5 |
-0.8 |
Meat products |
-1.8 |
-1.7 |
-3.7 |
-1.4 |
-13.7 |
0.4 |
-3.2 |
1.2 |
Wool |
-16.8 |
-17.4 |
-33.2 |
-17.7 |
-76.2 |
0.3 |
-30.7 |
1.3 |
Iron and steel |
-6.5 |
-6.5 |
-11.1 |
-6.5 |
-26.3 |
-9.6 |
-7.6 |
-37.5 |
Primary aluminium |
-3.6 |
-3.5 |
-6.2 |
-3.6 |
-17.5 |
-4.3 |
-4.3 |
-21.9 |
Light manufacturing |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
5.0 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
Note: Scenario 2 is not reported as New Zealand does not require a carbon tax in this scenario.
