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Climate Change Projections for New Zealand

Publication date:  September 2018
Publication reference number:  MFE 1385

This report addresses expected changes in New Zealand’s climate (temperature and many other climate variables) out to 2120, and draws heavily on climate model simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report.

This 2018 '2nd Edition' of Climate Change Projections for New Zealand is the same as the original 2016 report, except for incorporation of results from a 2018 report on very extreme rainfall – the “HIRDS” report (Carey-Smith et al., 2018). The analysis indicates that very extreme rainfall is likely to increase in all areas with increases more pronounced for shorter duration events.