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Figure A3.2: Projected changes in annual mean temperature (in °C) for 2040, relative to 1990 for the first six individual climate models for A1B emission scenario

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This figure comprises 12 maps of New Zealand, each showing projected change in mean annual temperature for one of the 12 models.

The models show a wide range of projected changes in temperature for New Zealand.

The model mpi_echam5 shows the least projected increase. An increase of up to 0.2 degrees is expected for the South Island below Otago and South Westland. For the rest of the South Island, and parts of Kapiti, Manawatu and the Wairarapa an increase of up to 0.4 degrees is projected. An increase of up to 0.6 degrees is shown for the remainder of the North Island and for parts of the Marlborough Sounds and Kaikoura coastline.

The model miroc32_hires shows the greatest projected temperature increase. It projects an increase of up to 1.2 degrees for the lower half of the South Island. An increase of up to 1.4 degrees is expected for the upper half of the South Island. The lower half of the North Island together with the Nelson/Blenheim region has a projected increase of up to 1.6 degrees. Lastly, Hawkes Bay, East Cape and the remainder of the North Island from the Waikato upwards are expected to increase by up to 1.8 degrees.

Most of the models have slightly smaller increases in the south than the north. The greatest range is for the miroc model which has a change of around 0.9 degrees in the south to 1.6 degrees around the south of the North Island.