Emissions reduction and the art of negotiation

The Ministry for the Environment plays a significant role in progressing New Zealand's international climate change negotiations.

With the term of the Kyoto Protocol coming to a close in 2012, the Ministry’s negotiators are preparing for a new set of discussions in Copenhagen at the end of the year.

New Zealand’s negotiating position is developed collaboratively (after receiving direction from the Government) by the Ministry for the Environment, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Treasury, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the Ministry of Transport, the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, and the Ministry of Economic Development. Once the collaborative work is drafted, New Zealand’s position is sent to Cabinet for final approval.

How did New Zealand get to its position on climate change?

The architecture of today’s international climate change policy reflects more than 20 years of work, which began with several international conferences in the late 1980s.

These conferences were formed because scientific studies were showing that persistent human activities like driving cars, farming, burning coal and cutting down forests were producing greenhouse gases. The studies showed that greenhouse gases caused by human activity were greatly exceeding those caused by changes in natural processes. The science also identified that warmer average temperatures would lead to impacts such as rising sea levels and changing climate patterns and could have significant impacts on our economy, environment and the way we live.

The international discussions culminated with agreement on the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), signed at the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit and which entered into force in 1994.

The Framework Convention advanced four main elements including:

a long-term goal of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations “at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”
short-term nonbinding measurable emissions goals for industrialised countries
demarcation of equity-based efforts between industrialised and developing nations
preference for cost-effective implementation.

Taken together, the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol provide the essential structure for any new international agreement or set of agreements on climate change. When the first commitment period of the Protocol expires in 2012, a new international framework will need to have been negotiated and ratified which can deliver on new emission reduction targets.

Recognising the need to make more ambitious efforts, the 141 nations (the Conference of the Parties) that ratified the Convention then negotiated the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. This agreement took a first step toward the UNFCCC’s ultimate objective through the introduction of cost-effective short-term quantitative targets for industrialised countries. The Protocol is expected to limit industrialised countries’ emissions to 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels over the 2008–2012 period.

The Kyoto Protocol had to be signed and ratified by 55 countries (including those responsible for at least 55 per cent of the developed world's 1990 carbon dioxide emissions) before it could enter into force. This was achieved in late 2004, with the Protocol entering into force on 16 February 2005. New Zealand ratified on 19 December 2002. Only countries that ratify the Protocol are bound by it.

Critics of the Kyoto Protocol point out that some of the largest emitters do not face binding emissions constraints, including the United States, which has not ratified the agreement.

At the last meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP 14) in Poznań last year, progress was made on a number of ongoing issues that are particularly important for developing countries, including:

adaptation
finance
technology
reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

New Zealand Ambassador for Climate Change, Adrian Macey, right, at Poznań.

The Poznań conference and other UNFCCC meetings that will be held this year present chances for countries to clarify their positions in the lead up to negotiations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP 15) from 7–18 December this year. The talks in Copenhagen will form the future international response to climate change. Negotiations are following a two-track approach, under both the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

Helen Plume, from the Climate Change Policy team at the Ministry for the Environment and chair of the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body of Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) says the key objectives for New Zealand in the negotiations are to obtain a comprehensive agreement with both developed and developing nations and negotiate fair commitments for New Zealand.

Roger Lincoln, also from the Ministry's Climate Change Policy team, is New Zealand’s lead negotiator for the UNFCCC convention negotiations.

He says the negotiations under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are inching forward but a lot of work is necessary if a comprehensive deal is to be struck at Copenhagen. “Developing countries want to see what emissions reduction targets Annex I countries set under the Kyoto Protocol before making any commitments themselves. Conversely, those in the Kyoto Protocol want to see what the United States and the large emitting developing countries will do.”

Lincoln says negotiations will begin in earnest early this year with the aim of developing a globally effective deal for all major emitters.

He says the global financial crisis adds a new dimension to climate change negotiations.

Plume says at a Ministerial level meeting in Poland held just after the financial crisis arose, ministers stated there should be no difference in approach to climate change, in fact they said the crisis provides opportunities.

“The election of Barack Obama as the President of the United States has probably solidified that position because he has signalled the US is on board – that will change things at the negotiating table, their influence will be large,” says Plume.

However, there remain many impasses in these negotiations including, the contribution of emissions reductions from developing countries, finalising developed country targets, the provision of finance to developing countries to reduce emissions and towards adapting to the impacts of climate change, how to transfer and diffuse technologies, treatment of carbon capture and storage, emissions from international bunker fuels and just how the recession might affect negotiating positions at Copenhagen.

“What that means for negotiations is the prospect of working on a general framework by the end of 2009, with details to follow later,” Lincoln says. However, he is wary of the approach of adding details after an agreement has been reached. “There are inherent risks in fleshing out an agreement after the fact – we are endeavoring to ensure that the rules of the game are finalised before commitments are agreed.”

Lincoln says the whole art of negotiations is to break down arguments to a position, so that the text on the table is the focus. “It’s about words and concepts and talking about ideas and proposals and negotiating those proposals into the text. Trading-off things or sometimes finding that countries won’t budge on one section without something happening in another is all part of the process.”

The next major UNFCCC gathering in the lead up to Copenhagen is taking place from 29 March to 8 April 2009 in Bonn, Germany.

For more information see www.climatechange.govt.nz

Photos source: The International Institute for Sustainable Development

LEFT: Al Gore at the Conference of the Parties, in Poznań, Poland in mid-December 2008.
RIGHT: Negotiations at Poznań. Helen Plume from the Ministry's Climate Change Policy team sits on the far left.

A view of the Poznań plenary during the workshop on long-term cooperative action.

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