Potential national environmental standard on future sea-level rise
Update: We are in the process of identifying information to support the need for the proposed NES on future sea-level rise.
Local authorities face a number of issues when planning for the effects of future sea-level rise. One of these issues is selecting an appropriate sea-level rise projection to plan for. Varying information is available from several different credible sources, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Ministry for the Environment and NIWA. As a result, local authorities have spent a lot of time identifying which climate change scenario or sea-level rise projection to plan for. An additional challenge for local authorities is the constant re-litigation by parties of the particular climate change and sea-level rise projection selected.
The Ministry for the Environment is scoping the potential for the development of an NES on future sea-level rise to address these issues. The objectives of a proposed NES are:
- a reduction in the time, and therefore cost, to local authorities spent identifying which future sea-level rise projection they should be planning for
- a reduction in the risk of re-litigation of the future sea-level rise projection selected, which will assist local authorities to undertake effective planning
- ensuring the future sea-level rise projection can be amended effectively and efficiently to reflect the best available information.
The option being scoped is to develop an NES that prescribes a base amount of future sea-level rise to plan for, along with requiring consideration of the consequences of higher sea-level rise values. It is proposed that the standard would be legally drafted based on the Ministry for the Environment guidance manual Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A Guidance Manual for Local Government in New Zealand, page 20, as follows:
For planning and decision timeframes out to the 2090s (2090–2099): a base value sea-level rise of 0.5 m relative to the 1980–1999 average will be used, along with an assessment of the potential consequences from a range of possible higher sea-level rise values. At the very least, all assessments will consider the consequences of a mean sea-level rise of at least 0.8 m relative to the 1980–1999 average.
For planning for the period beyond 2100, where future adaptation options may be limited, an allowance for sea-level rise of 10 mm per year beyond 2100 is required.
Process – where we are at
The diagram below outlines the process for developing an NES. The arrow indicates what stage the Ministry for the Environment is at in scoping the development of a proposed National Environmental Standard for future sea-level rise.
A draft discussion document has been prepared. We are in the process of identifying further information to support the need for the proposed NES on future sea-level rise.
Figure 1
This flow diagram of the NES development process starts with Cabinet approving the scope. This is followed by a public process phase comprising a scoping proposal with stakeholders. This leads to a discussion document. The scoping proposal and discussion document are the informal process.
The public process continues by public notification and a submissions period. This is expected to be a 10-week formal process for this NES.
Close of submissions is followed by a phase of analysis which leads to a report and recommendations to the Minister. This will include a Section 32 RMA cost-benefit analysis, and a Regulatory Impact Assessment and a final proposal . The Minister consults his colleagues, the report and recommendations are released, and legal drafting of the standard takes place. Eventually, the draft becomes regulation.
The Minister consults his colleagues, the report and recommendations are released, and legal drafting of the standard takes place. Eventually, the draft becomes regulation.
We are at the stage of preparing a discussion document for public consultation.
Further information
- For more information on planning for coastal hazards and climate change see Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for local government in New Zealand or the summary of this report, Preparing for Coastal Change: A guide for local government in New Zealand.
- More information is available on national environmental standards under the RMA and national policy statements.
- See the Resource Management Act page, which is a gateway to information about the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA).
Last updated: 8 September 2011
