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Forces of change

Climate change

Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide act like the outside covering of a greenhouse, trapping heat from the sun. These essential gases make our planet a warm and habitable place. Humans contribute to the production of greenhouse gases through activities like driving cars, burning coal, farming and cutting down trees. These activities are increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, causing Earth not only to heat up, but to heat up at a faster rate than ever before.

This process is often called ‘global warming’ but it is better to think of it as ‘climate change’ because it is likely to bring about more extreme events – floods, storms, cyclones, droughts and landslips – rather than an increase in temperature alone. Climate change could have significant impacts on our economy, environment and the way we live – the effects of a warming planet and subsequent changing climate patterns are already becoming evident.

The impacts of climate change are likely to have different effects in different parts of New Zealand.

The Ministry’s climate change website explains more about the science of climate change and the potential consequences for New Zealand.

How will this affect New Zealand’s towns and cities?

• Temperature - Climate scientists expect the Earth’s average temperature will increase by between 1.1 and 6.4°C this century. In New Zealand, average temperatures are projected to increase about 1°C by around 2040 and about 2.1°C by around 2090. There are likely to be decreases in the number of frost days in the lower North Island and the South Island, and a substantial increase in the number of hot days where temperatures exceed 25°C, especially in the north of the North Island.
• Extreme Events - We can expect increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like severe storms, floods and droughts.  This may result in the inundation of low-lying coastal land and infrastructure on land vulnerable to hazards and development in flood prone areas.
• Rainfall - More rain is likely to fall in the west of the country and less in the east. We can also expect more episodes of heavy rainfall and for westerly winds to become more prevalent with a greater risk of severe winds and storms, placing increased pressure on storm water infrastructure.
• Sea level rise - Under moderate projections, it is likely that sea levels will rise 18 to 59cm by 2100. Faster than expected ice-sheet melting could lead to even higher sea levels. Even a moderate sea level rise would lead to increased coastal erosion, flooding from storms, salinisation of freshwater, and drainage problems (see the Ministry’s publication ‘Coastal hazards and climate change’).
• Policy changes - Many cities and regional councils are already implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of their response to climate change. They are often targeted at reducing city-wide emissions from transport, industry and homes. They also often focus on improving energy efficiency to reduce the use of energy obtained from fossil fuels. These policies will all affect the way urban individuals, households and businesses operate (Chapman & Boston, 2007)¹.
• Preparing for the physical impacts of climate change - Despite measures taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions now, the levels of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere are expected to continue to affect and change the climate. This means that as well as working to reduce emissions, towns and cities will need to prepare for climate change and adapt to its impacts. It is important that both kinds of actions are taken. The risks of inaction are likely to be more costly than the cost of any action. Without a reduction in emissions, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continue to rise meaning the rate and extent of climate change is likely to be greater. At the same time, preparing for and adapting to climate change will minimise the risks to New Zealand as well as maximise any opportunities arising from a changing climate. See the ministry’s website for more information on adapting to climate change.

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Reduced Resource Availability

Over the past five years countries have been experiencing increasing resource scarcity issues like rising commodity prices and reduced access to basic resources such as energy and drinking water.  A growing global population means a growing demand for resources. This primarily means that there is just less of everything to go around. Therefore any disruption to the supply of resources has an impact on consumers as reserve stocks are being steadily depleted. 

The world’s current energy needs are overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels in the form of coal, gas and oil.  Electricity generation and transport are particularly dependent on burning fossil fuels.  The rise in oil prices and the contribution of fossil fuel burning to climate change are two effects that signal an urgent need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels (Eagles (ed), 2007)².

The CEO of Royal Dutch Shell recently said, “after 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand” (Van der Weer, 2008)³.  Renewable energy sources are now becoming more economically viable as the price for oil continues to go up.  Renewable sources with the best short to medium-term potential in New Zealand are wind, solar, geothermal and hydro electricity.

Access to renewable resources such as fresh water, clean air and other “eco-system services” is increasingly coming under threat. For example, global forces like climate change and economic globalisation affect food production, contributing to increased costs for food and creating shortages that affect both producers and consumers.

How will this affect New Zealand’s towns and cities?

• Transport – High energy costs are likely to reduce the average distances that urban residents and businesses are prepared to travel. This could lead to a demand for higher density development that brings people, services and goods closer together.  High energy prices could also lead to an increased demand for cost effective and efficient public transport. These demands could significantly affect the way that urban areas are planned and developed over the long term.
• Renewable electricity generation – The need to reduce carbon emissions alongside increased demand for energy has made investment in renewables a priority for New Zealand.  As easy access, and development of large scale non-renewable sources of energy diminishes, this could open up the market for local micro-generation technology. Such technology includes solar, urban wind turbines and micro-hydro generation. If there is to be a shift towards micro-generation for local needs, and increased electricity use for transport needs, there will be a need to change the way that urban infrastructure is planned and provided. 
• Energy efficiency – Higher costs for energy naturally leads to increased demand for better energy efficiency in products. Buildings are a major component of the New Zealand urban environment that will likely see a marked improvement in energy efficiency.
• Water – Climate change is projected to make some parts of New Zealand drier in the decades to come. The management and efficient use of existing water supplies is a prominent issue in all urban areas.  This will require more creative approaches from local councils to source potable water for their residents. A good example is Kapiti Coast District Council. They have recently produced a ‘Best Practice Subdivision Guide’ that provides for the addition of rainwater tanks, among other things, for new subdivisions. 

Globalisation

Globalisation could be described as an increased and less restricted exchange of goods, services, technologies, cultures, and ideas. An important facilitator of globalisation is the exponential growth of global communications. The increasing flow of people between countries also contributes to a globalising world.

A characteristic of globalisation is the use of new technology to speed the movement of goods, services, ideas and resources. Cities, by their nature, tend to be the place where these things concentrate.  As the effects of globalisation become more noticeable, major cities are becoming more important as the engine rooms of a country’s growth and development.  Equally, globalisation can lead to the sidelining of some cities relative to others.  

Importantly, some countries and cities can start to lose their cultural distinctiveness. As towns and cities are opened up to a wider range of cultures and identities, they often need to put more effort into developing and maintaining a unique, competitive and marketable identity. Failure to do this can mean that these areas can start to lag behind in the competitive global market for labour, resources and information.  Towns and cities that offer a high quality environment and a good quality of life retain existing residents and attract skilled people and visitors alike.

How will this affect New Zealand’s cities and towns?

• Keeping pace with technological change requires cities to plan for, and provide appropriate communications infrastructure.
• A challenge for New Zealand’s towns and cities is to actively and creatively develop and maintain their individual cultural identity.  This is particularly important as New Zealand is marketed more widely on the international tourism market.
• Globalisation can also increase competition between towns and cities to attract businesses and skilled workers.  This often requires towns and cities to build on their unique strengths and points of difference. 

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Demographic changes

Statistics New Zealand (2007)⁴ predicts that our population will peak at 5 million by the late 2020s, with the large majority of people residing in urban areas. Two-thirds of New Zealand's population growth between 2001 and 2026 is projected to be in Auckland region.

Some of the important changes in New Zealand’s population include:

• Aging - it is estimated that those over 65 will make up one-quarter or more of all New Zealand residents by 2051(Statistics New Zealand, 2007)⁵
• Increasing ethnic diversity – since 2001, those who identify with a European ethnicity have decreased as a percentage of total population, all other groups have grown (Statistics New Zealand, 2007)⁶
• Decreasing average household size – in 2001, the average was 2.6 people per household. This is expected to drop to 2.4 by 2021(Statistics New Zealand, 2005)⁷.

How will this affect New Zealand’s towns and cities?

• An increasingly older population will be more reliant on government support for things such as housing, health, transport and recreation services. The challenge for central and local government will be to plan ahead for these changes as they become more influential within communities.
• Growing cultural diversity provides an opportunity for local councils to work with a wider range of groups in the community.  These groups can assist councils to identify how different cultures can be accommodated and expressed in the urban environment.
• Populations can shift in location as well as characteristics. An example is the recent New Zealand trend of rising inner city populations, relative to the rest of the city. In Christchurch, for example, the central city residential population rose 17 percent over 1991-2001 compared to city-wide growth of 2.7 percent (Ancell & Thompson Fawcett, 2008)⁸ . This change in population location significantly affects municipal planning for transport and housing.
• Changing lifestyle preferences are leading to a change in housing tenure in many New Zealand cities. The last four years have seen a steady increase in the number of apartments rented as a percentage of total rented dwellings (Department of Building and Housing, 2007). This change in tenancy patterns presents a challenge for New Zealand’s towns and cities to develop appropriate amenable built environment, public space, and social and utility infrastructure to support higher population densities.

Technological change

Changes in technology drive major social and economic shifts. New technologies will continue to drive rapid change in lifestyles, society, business, transport, and trade.  Increased globalisation is driving the demand for faster services and information exchange across the world. Technological change is affecting the way that businesses are run, and the goods and services they provide. Some industries that are affected by technological change include communications, electricity generation, and construction.  

How will this affect New Zealand’s cities and towns?

• Electricity generation could move toward smaller, more localised and multi-functional solutions. Examples include local solar and wind generated electricity, clean technology that re-uses waste, and combined heat and power generation (See http://www.chpa.co.uk). 
• Cities and regions can upgrade their broadband network to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of communications. This creates an environment for new technologies, communication, and innovation to flourish.   
• Technology improvements can support decentralised hubs of development. This type of development can lead to a more localised approach to business and residential life where workers can live and work in locations other than a city central business district.  This decreases reliance on one central area, distribution point or knowledge centre (Auckland City Council et al, 2006)⁹. An example is the ‘urban village’ concept adopted by the city of Seattle.  Seattle’s Comprehensive Plan¹⁰ sets out goals for specific town centres, nodes or communities to be developed to accommodate most of the city’s future growth. The residents of these ’urban villages’ are given a high degree of control over the planning of these areas. The Plan’s goal is to develop these centres with a good mix of employment, residential, recreational and commercial opportunities. 

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Last updated: 5 December 2008