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How might climate change affect my region? Climate change in Otago
Otago's climate is the most varied and extreme in New Zealand with cold winters and mild summers along the coast and very cold, frosty winters and hot summers inland.
A change in our climate as a result of global warming and other influences means we need to think about how we are going to plan for and manage the projected impacts of climate change in Otago and New Zealand. But we also need to take appropriate action to reduce our share of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for global warming and climate change impacts.
Some of the predicted impacts of a moderate rate of climate change for Otago include changes in average temperature, sea level rise and rainfall patterns. In general, Otago will be warmer and wetter.
Climate scientists estimate that Otago's temperature could be up to 2.5°C warmer over the next 70-100 years. This compares to a temperature increase in New Zealand during last century of about 0.7°C. To put this in perspective, the 1997/98 summer, which many New Zealanders remember as particularly long, hot and dry, was only about 0.9°C above New Zealand's average for the 1990s.
Coastal North Otago could be up to 10% drier while the rest of the region could be wetter - up to 30% wetter in inland Otago. The region as a whole is likely to experience more varied rainfall patterns and flooding could become up to four times as frequent by 2070.
The effects of climate change may bring significant costs to the community.
If extreme weather events become more frequent or severe, the costs and damages associated with them are also likely to increase. The cost of dealing with stock losses, replacing or repairing damaged roads, bridges, houses and stormwater drains, and dealing with increased soil erosion and loss of soil nutrients can be formidable. Recent extreme weather events such as the Marlborough and Canterbury droughts, Cyclone Bola, the "weather bomb" in the Waikato/Coromandel area, and coastal flooding during the Waitangi Day storm, have shown how vulnerable our society and economy is to the weather and climate.
There are likely to be benefits and opportunities from a change in climate too. Farmers could benefit from better crop growing conditions and faster growth of pasture due to more rain in the currently drier hill country. There could also be opportunities to grow new crops throughout Otago, with a longer growing season and fewer frosts.
However, if the rate and magnitude of climate change is not slowed down, that is, if we don't reduce greenhouse gas emissions, any beneficial effects of climate change are expected to diminish and the adverse effects and long-term risks expected to increase.
Otago's climate
Otago's climate is the most varied and extreme in New Zealand and is influenced by the direction of the prevailing wind and topography of the region. The Southern Alps provide a massive barrier to the strong moist westerly winds, making the mountains wet and the interior basins dry. Milford Sound has 6813 mm of rain annually, whereas Alexandra, just over 100km away to the east of the Alps, has a total annual rainfall of 358 mm. The lower mountain ranges in the south and east of the region present a similar obstacle to southerly and easterly winds; inland the contrasts are greater with hot summers, cold winters and large daily temperature ranges.
Last updated: 20 March 2008
