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How might climate change affect my region? Climate Change in Gisborne and Hawke's Bay

Sheltered by high country to the west, Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne enjoy predominantly warm dry settled weather in summer and relatively mild winters.

A change in our climate as a result of global warming and other influences means we need to think about how we are going to plan for and manage the projected impacts of climate change in Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne and New Zealand. But we also need to take appropriate action to reduce our share of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for global warming and climate change impacts.

Some of the predicted impacts of a moderate rate of climate change for Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne include changes in average temperature, sea level rise and rainfall patterns. In general, Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, like much of the east coast of New Zealand, is likely to become warmer and drier.

Climate scientists estimate that temperatures in Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne could be up to 3°C warmer over the next 70-100 years. This compares to a temperature increase in New Zealand during last century of about 0.7°C. To put this in perspective, the 1997/98 summer, which many New Zealanders remember as particularly long, hot and dry, was only about 0.9°C above New Zealand's average for the 1990s.

Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne could be up to 20% drier but with more varied rainfall patterns (dry periods interspersed with very heavy rainfall) and flooding could become up to four times as frequent by 2070.

The effects of climate change may bring significant costs to the community.

If extreme weather events become more frequent or severe, the costs and damages associated with them are also likely to increase. The cost of dealing with stock losses, replacing or repairing damaged roads, bridges, houses and stormwater drains, and dealing with increased soil erosion and loss of soil nutrients can be formidable. Recent extreme weather events such as the Marlborough and Canterbury droughts, Cyclone Bola, the "weather bomb" in the Waikato/Coromandel area, and coastal flooding during the Waitangi Day storm, have shown how vulnerable our society and economy is to the weather and climate.

There are likely to be benefits and opportunities from a change in climate too. Farmers could benefit from better crop growing conditions and faster growth of pasture but greater fertiliser use would probably be needed. There could also be opportunities to grow new crops, with a longer growing season and fewer frosts.

However, if the rate and magnitude of climate change is not slowed down, that is, if we don't reduce greenhouse gas emissions, any beneficial effects of climate change are expected to diminish and the adverse effects and long-term risks expected to increase.

The climate in Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne

Sheltered by high country to the west, this region enjoys a dry, sunny climate. Warm dry settled weather predominates in summer. Frosts may occur in winter. Typical summer daytime maximum air temperatures range from 20°C to 28°C, occasionally rising above 30°C. High temperatures are frequent in summer, which may be accompanied by strong dry foehn winds from the northwest. Extreme temperatures as high as 39°C have been recorded. Winter is mild in the north of this region and cooler in the south. Typical winter daytime maximum air temperatures range from 10°C to 16°C. Annual hours of bright sunshine average about 2200 in Gisborne and Napier. Heavy rainfall can occur from the east or southeast. Westerly winds prevail. Sea breezes often occur in coastal areas on warm summer days.

Last updated: 20 March 2008