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How might climate change affect my region? Climate Change in the Bay of Plenty

The Bay of Plenty has a sub-tropical climate with warm humid summers and mild winters.

A change in our climate as a result of global warming and other influences means we need to think about how we are going to plan for and manage the projected impacts of climate change in the Bay of Plenty and New Zealand. But we also need to take appropriate action to reduce our share of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for global warming and climate change impacts.

Some of the predicted impacts of a moderate rate of climate change for the Bay of Plenty include changes in average temperature, sea level rise and rainfall patterns. In general, the Bay of Plenty, like much of the north of New Zealand, is likely to become warmer with the possibility of less rainfall in eastern areas but more in the west of the region.

Climate scientists estimate that the Bay of Plenty's temperature could be up to 3°C warmer over the next 70- 100 years. This compares to a temperature increase in New Zealand during last century of about 0.7°C. To put this in perspective, the 1997/98 summer, which many New Zealanders remember as particularly long, hot and dry, was only about 0.9°C above New Zealand's average for the 1990s.

Flooding could become up to four times as frequent by 2070, together with a sea-level rise of between 30cm and 50cm by 2100.

The effects of climate change may bring significant costs to the community.

If extreme weather events become more frequent or severe, the costs and damages associated with them are also likely to increase. The cost of dealing with stock losses, replacing or repairing damaged roads, bridges, houses and stormwater drains, and dealing with increased soil erosion and loss of soil nutrients can be formidable. Recent extreme weather events such as the Marlborough and Canterbury droughts, Cyclone Bola, the "weather bomb" in the Waikato/Coromandel area, and coastal flooding during the Waitangi Day storm, have shown how vulnerable our society and economy is to the weather and climate.

There are likely to be benefits and opportunities from a change in climate too. Farmers could benefit from better crop growing conditions and faster growth of pasture but greater fertiliser use would probably be needed. There are also likely to be opportunities to grow new, sub-tropical crops.

However, if the rate and magnitude of climate change is not slowed down, that is, if we don't reduce greenhouse gas emissions, any beneficial effects of climate change are expected to diminish and the adverse effects and long-term risks expected to increase.

Bay of Plenty's climate

This region has a sub-tropical climate with warm humid summers and mild winters. Typical summer daytime maximum air temperatures range from 22°C to 26°C, but seldom exceed 30°C. Winter daytime maximum air temperatures range from 9°C to 16°C. Annual sunshine hours average about 2000 in many areas, but the coastal region from Tauranga to Whakatane is much sunnier with at least 2200 hours. SW winds prevail for much of the year. Sea breezes often occur on warm summer days. Winter usually has more rain and is the most unsettled time of year. In summer and autumn, storms of tropical origin may bring high winds and heavy rainfall from the east or northeast.

Last updated: 20 March 2008